Tuesday - April 11, 2006
Gold Challenging 600
Gold also continues its relentless rise and GLD appears headed towards the mid 60s (650s for Gold). This forecast is based on the falling wedge (ABC) breakout and a move to the upper channel trendline. Key support is set at 55. There is a clear relationship between rising gold, oil and interest rates (falling bonds). The message is inflationary and continued trends in all three could limit upside in stocks.
By Arthur B. Hill - Tue 11-Apr-06 at 06:21AM in Gold
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Friday - April 07, 2006
Gold Heading Above 600
Gold remains strong and last week’s gap is holding. The breakout from the ABC correction and falling wedge signaled a continuation of the Nov-Jan advance and the upside target is around 64 or the upper channel trendline. I find it weird that stocks, in particular the Finance sector, can rally in the face of such strength in bullion. However, until there is a bearish technical signal, the trend for both stocks and gold is up and further gains are expected.
By Arthur B. Hill - Fri 07-Apr-06 at 06:41AM in Gold
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Tuesday - September 13, 2005
Dollar and GLD Up
What’s this? The US Dollar Index rises sharply and the StreetTracks Gold ETF (GLD) also gains. Monday’s move is impressive, but the greenback remains within a falling flag and I want to see a break above 89 to turn bullish again.
Gold opened weak on Monday, but rallied by the close and finished at its highest level of the year. The falling flag breakout is holding and I would not become concerned with the uptrend as long as 44 holds. A move below 44 would seriously challenge the breakout in gold.
By Arthur B. Hill - Tue 13-Sep-05 at 06:28AM in Gold
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Monday - August 15, 2005
Cramer Radio and Gold
Cramer Radio (click here) notes that “gold shines through sell off”. This is clear on the price chart, which was posted on Friday. GLD reversed off support in July and surged above triangle resistance in August.
By Arthur B. Hill - Mon 15-Aug-05 at 08:03AM in Gold
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Friday - August 12, 2005
Gold Breakout
There's gold in them thar hills.
By Arthur B. Hill - Fri 12-Aug-05 at 11:55AM in Gold
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Tuesday - July 26, 2005
Gold Finds Support
While the Dollar surged in June, gold also surged and this challenged the inverse relationship that held sway over the last few years. However, gold came down quite hard in July and has yet to fully recover. Perhaps this relationship is back on.
The overall pattern looks like a triangle and GLD is bouncing off support from the lower trendline and May low. Upside volume is outpacing downside volume. The early June advance featured above average volume. After the decline below 42.5, upside volume picked up again. This is positive, but GLD needs to break above the early July high (42.7) to solidify this reversal attempt. A failure and break below 41.5 would be most bearish and target a move to 40.
By Arthur B. Hill - Tue 26-Jul-05 at 07:35AM in Gold
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Thursday - May 12, 2005
Gold Break Down
Despite strength in the US Dollar Index, gold is holding up rather well. However, XAU is not so lucky and remains relatively weak. GLD broke the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle, but is holding support just above 42 for now. Given strength in the US Dollar Index and relative weakness in XAU, the odds favor a break to the downside. In an effort to avoid the whipsaw, traders can turn bullish on a move above 44 and bearish on a move below 42.
By Arthur B. Hill - Thu 12-May-05 at 04:43PM in Gold
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Tuesday - April 12, 2005
Gold Gets Boring
Both stocks and gold have traded in a tight range over the last two weeks. The Nasdaq has been caught between 2022 and 1968, while the Gold ETF has been caught between 43 and 42.20. There is a potentially bullish setup in gold and further strength would trigger a short-term bull signal.
After the February-March surge, GLD broke rising wedge support and declined to around 42.5. The move retraced 62% of the prior advance and this is normal for a correction. The two week range confirms support and a catalyst is required to confirm a reversal. Look for a move above 43 to get the gold bulls moving again.
By Arthur B. Hill - Tue 12-Apr-05 at 06:56AM in Gold
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