Thursday - June 22, 2006
Blog is Moving House
Updates to bullbearinvestor.com will stop for the moment so that I can concentrate on etfinvestmentoutlook.com. I will be posting regular ETF related comments on this site. There will be some free commentary and a subscription based newsletter. Once the work load is back under control, I will return to bullbearinvestor.com and offer a stock picking service. Best regards, Arthur
Click here for ETFInvestmentOutlook.com
By Arthur B. Hill - Thu 22-Jun-06 at 07:30AM in General
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Thursday - December 22, 2005
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
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I am taking a break from the blog and will return on 3-Jan – fatter and happier! Happy Holidays and Happy New Year. See you in 2006.
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By Arthur B. Hill - Thu 22-Dec-05 at 05:56AM in General
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Wednesday - November 16, 2005
Sick day
I have a sick wife and baby that require tending today and will not be able to update the blog today. Sorry about any inconvenience and I hope to be up and running again tomorrow.
By Arthur B. Hill - Wed 16-Nov-05 at 08:41AM in General
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Monday - October 03, 2005
Random Rants
The Nasdaq formed a falling wedge (Aug-Sep) that retraced 38% of the prior advance and bounced off broken resistance at 2100.
In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has a descending triangle working with the lower high in September and equal lows in Aug-Sept. A move below 1550 would confirm this bearish pattern.
Once again, the NYSE Composite is close to an all time high.
The S&P 500 has a triangle consolidation working since late June.
With a big move on Thursday, the Dow Diamonds (DIA) filled the 21-Sep gap and solidified key support.
The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) dropped sharply on Friday.
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is getting some support, but the downtrend dominates as long as the August trendline holds.
The HealthCare SPDR (XLV) is firming at support. Watch 31.7 for a breakout.
The B2B Internet HOLDRS (BHH) formed a triangle over the last two months - watch 2.35 for a breakout.
The Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) formed a harami over the last two days and a break above 132.5 would be short-term bullish for the group and the Finance sector.
The iShares REIT ETF (IYR) formed a bullish engulfing at support and surged on Friday.
The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) followed through with a break above minor resistance and this is a positive within the larger falling price channel that extends back to early August.
The Telecom HOLDRS (TTH) got another boost on Friday - this follows the bullish engulfing on Wed-Thu.
The iShares ~20-year T-Bond Fund (TLT) cannot hold any gains and a break below 92 would be bearish.
The Phila. Gold & Silver Index ($XAU) formed a dark cloud over the last two days.
Dan Luskin of SmartMoney.com thinks Greenspan will keep raising rates to tame the inflation that threatens his legacy.
Procter & Gamble is surging to new highs as the acquistion of Gillette is completed.
Will Ebay's $2.6 billion acquisition of Skype pay off? Check out Heard on the Street at wsj.com
Housing prices: The latest data showed a 13.5% rise in the first half of the year. This is the highest rate of housing price inflation for more than 25 years.
Joseph Wana of TheStreet.com likes Paychex (PAYX).
The folks at S&P replaced Gillette with home builder Lennar (LEN). Interestingly, Google was not selected and is not a part of the S&P 500.
RDA has support at 15 and is showing some good upside volume the last few weeks.
IMAX gapped up on good volume last week.
AW has lots of support around 7.5 - 8
COCO continues to consolidate around 12.5 - 13
MAGS continues to consolidate with resistance at 11.5 and support at 10
NOVL continues to show good relative strength and good upside volume.
CHKP broke resistance at 24.1 on above average volume.
INTU formed a piercing pattern and a break above 46 would be bullish.
BUD sank to a new 52-week low.
SNPS continues to hold the mid August gap and consolidate near resistance. A break above 19.1 would be bullish.
MDCO surged off support with good volume over the last two days.
KFT filled its gaps with a big bounce higher.
DLP got a big bounce off support.
The Motel Fool likes AMX.
ZNT looks in trouble with a gap in early August and another on Friday.
By Arthur B. Hill - Mon 03-Oct-05 at 06:26AM in General
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Friday - September 30, 2005
Random Rants
Some think that yesterday's gains stem from end of quarter window dressing. I am not sure who did the buying, but it is clear that someone is buying and that is all that counts.
The Dow is holding support yet again with a big bounce above 10500.
The Dow Utilities closed at yet another new high. The strong just get stronger.
The Nasdaq held support at 2100 with a big move on Thursday.
After five days of indecision, the S&P 500 made up its mind with a sharp move above 1220.
The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) led the way higher and the swing within the triangle is up again.
The Finance SPDR (XLF) held support at 29 with a long white candlestick and was the biggest gaining sector on Thursday.
The HealthCare SPDR (XLV) managed to firm on Thursday and hold key support at 31.
The iShares REIT ETF (IYR) formed a bullish engulfing at support.
The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) formed a harami cross on Tue-Wed and a long white candlestick on Thursday. A break above 36.6 would be short-term bullish.
The Transports ETF (IYT) broke resistance with a surge on big volume.
The CRB Index is closing in on another new high.
EP surged on big volume.
JBHT formed a bullish engulfing and a move above 19.5 would confirm this bullish candlestick reversal.
PG closed at a new high and is leading the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) higher.
CD formed a bullish engulfing at support and advanced on high volume last week.
MDCC is getting a bounce off support.
Can LUV fly above resistance at 14.8?
CSCO and FFIV closed lower on Thursday and show relative weakness.
By Arthur B. Hill - Fri 30-Sep-05 at 08:18AM in General
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Thursday - September 29, 2005
Random Rants
End of quarter window dressing is lifting strong sectors and stocks (Energy).
Durable goods orders rebounded and the ISM fell to 53.6. Beware if ISM dips below 50.
We are waiting for a breakout on a number of indices and stocks. But which way?
Jim Jubak of MSN thinks KWK, CRZO and UPL will benefit from hgiher oil prices.
Gold sure has turned volatile lately.
Oil is back above $66.
RMBS won a battle against Samsung in a Virginia court. The stock surged, but the war still rages.
James "Rev Shark" De Porre of TheStreet.com leads off with the "market's rotting floorboards".
Semis are not performing well and this is weighing on the Nasdaq.
The Nikkei hit a four year high.
The S&P 500 and Dow rebounded, but the Nasdaq finished in the red.
Natural Gas moved to record highs just before winter.
Sivy of CNNMoney thinks Alcoa looks awfully cheap. It is cheap for a reason - higher input costs from rising energy prices.
The Dow has risen four of last five days, but it looks like a weak rally with lots of indecision.
The Dow Transports got a pop yesterday and is on the verge of a resistance break at 3670.
The S&P 100 ETF (OEF) formed a doji and hammer at support - watch 55.8 down and 56.5 up.
SPY formed five indecisive candlesticks in a row as it consolidates above key support at 120.35.
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) slipped back below 32 and I am lowering key resistance to 32.7
The Finance SPDR (XLF) is locked in a trading range with a lower high at 30 and a descending triangle taking shape since mid July.
The Biotech HOLDRS (BBH) formed a harami over the last two days and support may actually hold.
The Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) is driving the Finance sector lower.
SMH formed a doji near support. The stock needs to clear 36.6 for any bounce to be taken seriously.
The Telecom HOLDRS (TTH) formed a big bullish engulfing. Q, VZ, SBC and BLS all participated in the advance and Internet TV may be the driving force.
The iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) formed a flag in September and a break above 106 would be bullish.
The iShares 7-10 Year T-Bond Fund (IEF) formed a falling flag and a break above 85.5 would be bullish. Flight to safety?
Of the big bells, SBC has the most support (23.5), Q has the most to gain and VZ looks the weakest.
IBM found support from broken resistance (June high) and popped on good volume yesterday
Little networkers are hot as LU became the latest to pop on good volume.
CIEN extended its gains and breakout at 2.35.
NOVL is one of the stronger stocks of late with a high volume move in Aug-Sep and consolidation the last two weeks.
CHKP shows good relative strength and a break above 24.1 would be bullish.
INTU now needs to clear 46 to confirm the bullish engulfing.
BEAS broke support at 8.6 from a mini head-and-shoulders (Jul-Sep)
CSC is showing signs of life with a bounce on pretty good volume.
EXPD is inching above resistance
By Arthur B. Hill - Thu 29-Sep-05 at 05:11PM in General
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Wednesday - September 28, 2005
Random Rants
Last year's fourth quarter rally was quite impressive. Will we get the same again this year?
Consumer confidence falls sharply, yet the markets remain firm in the face of bad news. Hmm….
Despite the hurricanes, the Fed signals more rate increases - yet bonds remain firm.
Federal money will flow to help rebuild after Rita and Katrina - this may be temporary, but it is an economic stimulant.
The Fed indicates that inflation is the top priority at the moment.
There is a battle raging between the bulls and the bears. Right now, niether is winning as the market churns and bruises both.
The Dow is consolidating near support around 10400. Watch 10350 for an important break.
The Dow Transports continue to firm, but no cigar (bull reversal) until a break above 3670.
The Utilities just keep going and going and going.
The Nasdaq is finding support at 2100 from June resistance and the August low.
It has been four days of indecisive candlesticks for SPY.
XLP led the market higher on Tuesday as money moved into safety - CL, WAG, MO and PEP.
Led by AMGN, BBH broke support at 186.
IAH may have a head-and-shoulders working, but a break above 35.4 would negate the pattern.
SMH led the way lower on Tuesday and closed at ts lowest level since early July.
Home builder Lennar (LEN) beat yet again and raised its estimates - can the stock follow suit?
Can McDonalds (MCD) unlock the value of its real estate?
El Paso (EP) is pushing towards a 52-week high on high volume.
Mircon Tech (MU) led the decline in the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH).
Intel (INTC) has a horrible looking chart and Advanced Micro (AMD) I challenging its 52-week high.
JBL formed an outside reversal and the resistance breakout is failing.
Is that another exhausiton gap for HPQ?
JDSU continues to sprint higher.
FFIV formed a bearish engulfing at resistance from the July gap.
CSCO could not make is back above broken support (July low).
ORCL cannot recover from the gap.
RSAS declined on the highest volume in over a month.
MER formed a shooting start on 20-Sep and declined over the past week.
LLY is trading back near support in the low 50s.
ADRX is firming around 15.
PG hit a 52-week high yesterday.
SFD gapped higher on good volume.
HNZ filled last week's gap with a high volume advance.
By Arthur B. Hill - Wed 28-Sep-05 at 10:29AM in General
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Tuesday - September 27, 2005
Random Rants
Stocks opened strong and finished weak. Not a good sign.
The Dow Transports continue to firm as oil remains soft. However, we still need a breakout on good volume to turn bullish.
The Nasdaq has a falling wedge working over the last two months, but Monday's bounce was not impressive.
The Dow Diamonds (DIA) formed an indecisive spinning top and this bounce off support needs more juice.
The S&P 100 ETF (OEF) closed near its low and showed relative weakness on Monday.
The VIX is creeping higher.
XLY followed through on the bullish engulfing, but Monday's black candle shows serious reservations among the bovines.
XLP attempted to move back above broken support but failed miserably as BUD weighed the sector down.
XLF: I still view the trendline break in Aug and failure at 30 as bearish until proven otherwise.
XLV is trying to firm at suppport and a break below 31 would be bearish.
XLB may be firming, but I want a breakout at 28.2 before turning bullish.
BHH managed to close strong and show some buying interest. Watch 2.35 for a pennant breakout.
BBH slipped further below its channel trendline and is now testing key support at 186.
IAH has a head-and-shoulders working over the last four months with support at 34.
HHH bounced within the falling price channel, but remains well short of a meaningful breakout.
IGN held the April trendline, but closed weak on Monday.
RKH opened on the high and closed on the low. Banks are weak.
SMH firmed near the August low and 62% retracement, but we need a stronger bounce to take support seriously.
SWH has lots of support around 35, but the damage has already been done with the break below 36.
With VoIP, who has the guts to buy the baby bells?
TLT is testing support from its March trendline.
GLD opened weak and closed strong as the bid remains in gold and gold shares.
Can XILNX complete the head-and-shoulders that has been working since May?
Is RMBS putting in a bottom?
By Arthur B. Hill - Tue 27-Sep-05 at 09:30AM in General
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Tuesday - September 06, 2005
It's a Girl
Anais Hill
September 6, 2005 1:50PM
3.26 kilograms / 7.2 pounds
51 Centimeters / 19.9 inches
I will be taking a few days off from blogging to spend time with the newest edition of our family. This blog will continue next Monday 12-September.
By Arthur B. Hill - Tue 06-Sep-05 at 05:30PM in General
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Wednesday - August 17, 2005
Mini Vacation
I will be taking off Thursday and Friday for a mini vacation with family and friends. Blogging will resume on Monday 22-Aug. Have a great weekend.
By Arthur B. Hill - Wed 17-Aug-05 at 06:00PM in General
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Wednesday - July 20, 2005
On Vacation
I am on vacation this week and updates will resume on Monday 25-July.
By Arthur B. Hill - Wed 20-Jul-05 at 11:21AM in General
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Monday - April 11, 2005
A Raging Bull
Dan Luskin on the MSN Strategy Lab (click here) sees a major bottom ahead for stocks. Luskin suggests that valuations are good, sentiment is overtly bearish and all the technicals are falling into place. While I am not so sure about the first two, I can say that the technicals are indeed falling into place. However, the overall trend for NDX remains down and we have yet to see a catalyst to signal a trend reversal. The current setup in NDX is a classic and has been detailed in the weekly report for subscribers. In addition, I have outlined the changes needed that would turn an oversold bounce into a sustainable advance.
It should also be noted that Luskin’s Strategy Lab counterpart, stock picker extraordinaire Jon Markman, also sees a rally on the horizon. Markman notes relative strength in the internet stocks and the oversold nature of the market. Well, oversold is not a reason to be bullish and the other Nasdaq groups failed to bounce with the internet stocks. This is still a bottom picking exercise fraught with risk. As ma always said, “bottom picking is a nasty habit”. I am waiting for some proof before sticking my neck out.
By Arthur B. Hill - Mon 11-Apr-05 at 10:14AM in General
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Monday - April 04, 2005
Hedge Fund Mania
Gregg Greenberg of the TheStreet.com offers investors a way to play “the hedge fund craze”. Greenberg reports that there are around 8000 Hedge Funds now. He goes on to discuss different strategies, legal issues and fees. Lee Schultheis of Alpha Hedged Strategies points out that “a run-up in hedged investing like we are seeing now just leads to lackluster returns because too many people are piling into the same space, thereby squeezing out the returns”.
My view: 8000 Hedge Funds! That’s more than the total number of NYSE and Nasdaq stocks combined! The title alone should be enough to scare investors. Once something becomes of craze, investors risk buying at the top and subpar returns. Once an opening is spotted, money moves very fast and the opening slowly closes.
By Arthur B. Hill - Mon 04-Apr-05 at 02:41PM in General
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