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March 21, 2006
Something’s Got to Give
The iShares ~20-year T-Bond Fund (TLT) is headed down and the iShares REIT ETF (IYR) is headed up. And I thought that REITs were interest rate sensitive. REITs are looking at something else or they are in for a big surprise. The iShares ~20-year T-Bond Fund (TLT) broke support at 89.7 with a number of gaps in early March. This is bearish for bonds and bullish for rates (up). REITs are rising along with rates and the iShares REIT ETF (IYR) remains in a clear uptrend. It would take a move below 70 to reverse this uptrend. However, as long as TLT moves lower (rates higher), I would be skeptical of recent strength in REITs.
Posted by Arthur B. Hill at March 21, 2006 02:49 PM