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January 23, 2006
Top 50 Gadgets, Motorola vs Sony and the Good Oil 90s
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PC World released its list of the top 50 tech gadgets of all time. The iPod came in at number 2, just behind the Walkman. I really don’t think iPod deserves to be ahead of the Polaroid Land Camera or the Phonemate. I guess the poll has a short memory. Motorola (5) and Sony (7) captured the most spots and I will look at their charts below.
1 Sony Walkman TPS-L2 (1979)
2 Apple iPod (2001)
3 (Tie) ReplayTV RTV2001 and TiVo HDR110 (1999)
4 PalmPilot 1000 (1996)
5 Sony CDP-101 (1982)
6 Motorola StarTAC (1996)
7 Atari Video Computer System (1977)
8 Polaroid SX-70 Land Camera (1972)
9 M-Systems DiskOnKey (2000)
10 Regency TR-1 (1954)
11 Sony PlayStation 2 (2000)
12 Motorola Razr V3 (2004)
13 Motorola PageWriter (1996)
14 BlackBerry 850 Wireless Handheld (1998)
15 Phonemate Model 400 (1971)
16 Texas Instruments Speak & Spell (1978)
17 Texas Instruments SR-10 (1973)
18 Diamond Multimedia Rio PMP300 (1998)
19 Sony Handycam DCR-VX1000 (1995)
20 Handspring Treo 600 (2003)
21 Zenith Space Command (1956)
22 Hamilton Pulsar (1972)
23 Kodak Instamatic 100 (1963)
24 MITS Altair 8800 (1975)
25 Radio Shack TRS-80 Model 100 (1983)
26 Nintendo Game Boy (1989)
27 Commodore 64 (1982)
28 Apple Newton MessagePad (1994)
29 Sony Betamax (1975)
30 Sanyo SCP-5300 (2002)
31 iRobot Roomba Intelligent Floorvac (2002)
32 Microsoft Intellimouse Explorer (1999)
33 Franklin Rolodex Electronics REX PC Companion (1997)
34 Lego Mindstorms Robotics Invention System 1
35 Motorola DynaTAC 8000X (1983)
36 Iomega Zip Drive (1995)
37 Magnavox Magnavision Model 8000 DiscoVision Videodisc Player (1978)
38 Milton Bradley Simon (1978)
39 Play, Inc
40 Connectix QuickCam (1994)
41 BellSouth/IBM Simon Personal Communicator (1993)
42 Motorola Handie Talkie HT-220 Slimline (1969)
43 Polaroid Swinger (1965)
44 Sony Aibo ERS-110 (1999)
45 Sony Mavica MVC-FD5 (1997)
46 Learjet Stereo-8 (1965)
47 Timex/Sinclair 1000 (1982)
48 Sharp Wizard OZ-7000 (1989)
49 Jakks Pacific TV Games (2002)
50 Poqet PC Model PQ-0164 (1990)
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Sony (SNE) lagged the Nikkei in 2005, but appears to be playing catch up with a breakout in 2005. The stock surged in 2004 and corrected in 2005 with a large falling wedge. The breakout signals a continuation higher, but the stock has become short-term overbought and ripe for a pullback. Even though a move below the breakout (40) would be negative, I see lots of support around 37.
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Motorola (MOT) has been a leader over the last few months and is holding its July breakout. The stock surged above 20 and then formed a triangle in 2005. The subsequent breakout signaled a continuation high and MOT moved to 25. The going has gotten tougher recently, but the breakout is holding and the long-term for MOT is up as long as 19 holds. A pullback to the 19-20 area would offer better risk-reward ratio for new longs.
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My how things change. During the 1990’s, the 12-month moving average for oil moved above $25 per barrel only once. For the most part, oil remained below $25 for over 10 years. These were clearly the good times. The 12-month SMA moved above $25 in May 2000 and has remained above $25 for the last 4 1/2 years. The breakout at $40 is massive and it is holding. This level now turns into long-term support and I really don’t see oil moving below $40 anytime soon.
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Posted by Arthur B. Hill at January 23, 2006 09:34 AM