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October 21, 2005
Market Musings
The Nasdaq 100 has a resistance/support/resistance battle raging around 1550 with touches in early June, mid June, late August and late September.
The NYSE Composite erased all of Wednesday's gains and them some by closing at its lowest level of the month and is leading the way lower.
The Russell 2000 ($RUT) formed a rising flag over the last six days.
The S&P 100 closed below Wednesday's open.
Needless to say, the VIX shot higher yesterday.
The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) has traded flat since March 2004.
The Industrials SPDR (XLI) looks poised to break support at 29.
The Materials SPDR (XLB) cannot get any lift and move back above broken support.
The interest rate sensitive Utility SPDR (XLU) closed at its lowest level since late May.
The Internet HOLDRS (HHH) does not have Google and met resistance at 63. This is the only Nasdaq group showing any strength and a break below 58.5 would be bearish.
The Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) is meeting resistance from broken support at 132-133.
The Retail HOLDRS (RTH) tried to close above 94 and failed.
The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) remains below resistance at 35.
The Phila. Gold & Silver Index ($XAU) is nearing support (100) from broken resistance (Aug high) and the May trendline.
The StreetTracks Gold ETF (GLD) is near support from its late September low, but the gap two days ago is holding.
It is Jeckle and Hyde on Wall Street as a big up day is followed by a big down day.
Pfizer (PFE) warns of a long-term decline and this knocked the HealthCare sector.
Can Google (GOOG) power the WHOLE market?
Coca-Cola (KO) gapped higher on strong overseas sales, but still needs to clear 43.6 for a breakout.
More evidence of rising costs as McDonalds blamed higher beef prices for a dent in profits
Albertsons (ABS) is publicly on the auction block. The stock gapped higher on the news and has traded flat (23-26) the last 7 weeks.
Jim Jubak picks five tech stocks for the next rally (ARRS, EMC, KOMG, MRVL and ANAD). Let's wait for the rally to get here first though.
Arne Alsin of TheStreet.com projects a 13000-15000 Dow in 2-3 years. This may be the case, but how will it get there?
Mark Hulbert of CBSMarketWatch reports that Newsletter Sentiment dropped to -30.1%, its lowest level in six years. This contrarian indicator may bear fruit, but let's keep an eye on the charts for some REAL proof of a reversal.
The Conference Board reported that Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) dropped again in September with only 4 of the 10 components showing improvement.
EBAY's CEO notes that users will be able to make free telephone calls in a few short years. You can do it right now with Skype, which EBAY bought for $4 billion.
The Fed keeps jawboning rates higher, but the iShares ~20-year T-Bond Fund (TLT) has firmed over the last six days. Watch 92 for a breakout.
Posted by Arthur B. Hill at October 21, 2005 09:22 AM