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July 26, 2005

Japan Consolidates

The iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) is showing signs of life and a break above 10.4 would be most bullish. After the March-April decline, the stock formed a triangle over the last few months. These are neutral consolidations and a breakout is required for the next directional signal. EWJ broke above the upper trendline with a gap, but immediately fell back and we need to see some follow through before turning bullish.

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A failure to follow through above 10.4 and a break below 9.9 would be most bearish. This would signal a continuation of the prior decline and target a move to around 9. The Japan ETF is noticeably weaker than the other Asian ETFs. While the Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong are breaking out to new highs, Japan was turned back at its June high.

Posted by Arthur B. Hill at July 26, 2005 07:36 AM

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